Election 2012 Postmortem: Fun With Numbers

In 2011, for the first time since white people helped themselves to this continent, minority births outnumbered white births. Looking ahead, projections have America's white population falling below 50 percent before the year 2040.

Why does this matter? You're not a racist. I'm not a racist. We are practically color blind, you and I! We are  both very awesome humans.

The stats matter because of how this year's voting breaks down by ethnicity. Look:

Latinos chose Obama 71-27 over Romney;
Among African Americans, Obama won 93-5;
Asians: 73-24 for Obama;
Three quarters of other nonwhites chose Obama.

If we set up the U.S. demographics for the 2036 election using these parameters:

White: 50 percent
Latino: 26 percent
African American: 12 percent
Asian: 4 percent
Other nonwhite: 8 percent

And we simply extrapolate 2012 preferences to that new population, we get the following scores:

White: Republican 29, Democrat 21
Latino: R 7, D 19
Black: R 1, D 11
Asian: R 1, D 3
Other: R 2, D 6

Add everything up: D 60, R 40.

Let me restate, without giggling: the Democrat wins 60 percent of the vote in an entirely theoretical but unfarfetched election.

Granted, I'm not accounting for a rogue asteroid strike, or nuclear annihilation, or alien invasion, or even a spectacular zombie apocalypse. But come on: the poplar vote hasn't been that unbalanced since Nixon cleaned house in '72. In fact, only four presidential candidates ever have crossed the 60 percent threshold: the aforementioned Dick, plus LBJ in 1964, FDR in 1936, and some guy named Harding in 1920.

Even Reagan, when he won the Electoral College 525-13 (he really did that), didn't crack 60 percent of the vote.

It's been said that in American politics, demographics is destiny. Well, in that case, for the foreseeable future, if white men and evangelicals remain the base of the Republican Party, and everyone else forms the base of the Democrats, my money's on the D's.

P.S. -- Each week, I'll rehash one aspect of the election we just endured / produced / witnessed. Coming soon: SSM, legalization of pot, immigration, racism, Senate Shake-up, and others. Tune in for our next episode. Sometime.

The 1:30 a.m. Phone Call

In a sign that absolutely nothing has changed since Monday, Nov. 5, Republican congressional leaders refused to take the President's phone call immediately following his victory speech Tuesday night.

On account of they were asleep.

What, did the top dogs of the House and the Senate not bother to stay up and watch returns on the biggest political evening of the year? Did they not listen to Romney's concession speech minutes earlier? Did they fall sleep like carefree naifs just moments after suffering crushing losses in two of the three branches of government? (Losses that cost their side billions of dollars.) Did they lie in their beds pretending to be asleep, like so many eight-year-olds before them. Did they fake snore? Did they drink themselves to sleep? People want to know.

And if Boehner and McConnell were asleep (they weren't), do they make it a habit to empower their staff to tell the President of the United States to call back later, when it's more convenient?

/ring ring
/ring ring
Staffer: "John Boehner's office."
Voice: "Please hold for the President."
Staffer: "The who now? Is this a prank?"
Voice:
Voice:
Voice: "I said, please hold for the President. Of the United States."
Staffer:
Voice: "This is the White House. Please hold for t--"
Staffer: "Let me check."
Voice: "Let what"
Staffer: "Can you hold?"
Voice:
Voice:
Voice: "I'm sorry. Please hold fo--"
Staffer: "I checked, and he looks sort of asleep. Do you mind trying again in the morning? Maybe between 10:30 and 11?"
Voice:
Voice: "Hi John, this is President Obama."
Staffer: oh crap "Uh... Ah... Hey..."
POTUS: "Mr. Speaker? Are you all right?"
Staffer: "Mr., um, President, this is Deputy Deputy Communications Director McFrothy. How, how's it, how's it going?"
POTUS:
POTUS: "Pretty good. Had a good day, so far. If a bit long. Look, your boss, McFrothy. I'd like to speak to him."
McFrothy: "Mr. President, sir, he's not available."
POTUS: "Say again?"
McFrothy: "He's not awake, sir. I don't know if I should..."
POTUS: "Look -- ah, never mind."
/dial tone
McFrothy: "Hello?"

I get that the phone calls were made in the dead of night, at 1:30 a.m. I was asleep at that time myself! (Sleeping like a baby, I might add. I did add!) But it's the freakin' President of the United States of America on the line. That means something.

That used to mean something.

The total lack of respect shown for the office of the President is stunning. Classless, too. Sadly, the behavior was predictable. Get ready for more of the same, I guess, from the spoiled children that "run" the Republican Party.

Happy (Re)Election Day

A friend turned that phrase this morning. I took it. Now you have it!

Three points before they start counting the votes.

A) What I WANT to happen

Dream scenario? It's not even close. Every battleground state goes blue. No recounts. FL and VA both go for the President early. NC is too close to call. Obama coasts in PA.

In fact, how large the margins is in Pennsylvania and how close things along the mid-Atlantic seaboard will tell us a lot before we get other results. I want an early blowout -- an 11-point victory -- in PA, for the sake of my blood pressure.

As a bonus, unpopular Senate candidates in MO and IN could sink Romney by association. Both those states were competitive in '08. It's possible.

Again, it requires a great deal of wishful thinking, but if all of the above occur, you get this map. It looks a lot like 2008. The polls don't suggest this scenario, but they also don't suggest a Romney win. So if the polls are UNDERestimating the President's numbers, that map is in play.

B) What I FEAR will happen

In a word: Chicanery. Voter suppression efforts are one thing. Like a baseball team trying to steal signs, I expect Republican officials to use every single sleazy, despicable, and undemocratic trick in the book to discourage or prevent proper voting in Democratic strongholds. It's not right, but it's how the game is played, and to not expect some gamesmanship is to be naive to a fault.

I won't stoop to the level of some of my fellow shrieking liberals and outright accuse Republicans of stealing votes. Or of tampering with election machines. Not without proof, at least.

But I fear the possibility that desperate R party leaders, after watching their base fritter away nationwide, after realizing they are on the verge of becoming a regional force with little sway left in the upper Midwest or either coast, after witnessing NM, NV and CO turn blue, with demographics working against them -- I fear that they might cross a line and resort to treasonous acts of deception.

If those crimes are committed AND the challenger outperforms his polls, then you get something like this: Ugh, this map. And a new President swoops in to office, armed with a 52-48 popular vote victory and a 92-point Electoral College cushion.

Much like the dream scenario, I don't think this nightmare will be visited upon us. But I worry.

Moving on.

C) What I BELIEVE will happen.

My prognosticating skills are... pretty much the worst in the blogging business. Four years ago, I foresaw a giant economic recovery, a landslide election, and the Mariners winning the 2011 World Series. I didn't think Mitt Romney would win the R nomination. I thought that Obamacare would be overturned by the Supreme Court.

What I'm saying is, don't send me your tea leaves. I will only mash them up and brew them and throw them out before any actual reading of them takes place.

But.

I do think the President will win tonight. I do think it will be settled before midnight Eastern Time. (Or as they call it in the Oval Office, Nairobi Time -11.)

I do think he'll carry Virginia, for two main reasons: he performed well there in 2008 and there is a third-party candidate (the libertarian-leaning Virgil Goode) polling at about 1 percent, siphoning votes from Romney.

I do think he'll carry Ohio. Voter suppression will keep the race close, but Obama has such a commanding lead in the polls there... it's hard to assume that ALL the polling is off in that state. One poll, two could lean too far to the left or the right. But when you consider the totality of the data, when you don't cherry-pick a gorgeous Romney +2 poll and then shut your eyes, you see a clear lead for the President. A clear enough lead to hold off any potential tomfoolery. Or shenanigans.

Once you turn OH and VA blue, Romney is toast. He could somehow pick off WI, NH, hold on to FL, surprise us by winning CO and IA both... and still lose 274-264. (See this map.)

He could inexplicably win PA, adding CO and NH... and still lose 270-268 (Another map!)

I couldn't possibly tell you what will happen across the board. But VA and OH seem like Obama's best bets among true battleground states. And they're practically game-clinchers.

Only a few more hours. Vote!

Don We Now Our Gay Approval

Fa-la-la, la-la-la, LA LA LA

Come on. Get into the Christmas spirit. Forget about the election tomorrow. What election? PREcisely.

Fine. Election chatter it is. Look! History has a chance to be made tomorrow.

Vision 1: A Mormon President

no caption needed

With Mormons considered part of mainstream Christianity by so many Americans, electing an LDS President may not be a very big deal. Mormons have been governors, Senate Majority Leaders, and are not disqualified from holding the presidency in the same way that women are. Kidding! Oh my God I am so kidding it's not even funny. Except maybe the kidding is completely the opposite of kidding, because there seems to be little to no pushback against a fringe Christian / polytheist holding the office of President, and at the same time, we have yet to see a woman nominated by a major political party. Why is that? (The question is rhetorical.)

Vision 2: Another split in the popular vote winner and the Electoral College winner

You'll remember that Albert Gore won the popular vote in 2000 but not exactly the presidency. (Don't mention the Florida "recount." I don't want to talk about that. Ever again. Maybe.) Anyway: if Willard Romney wins the popular vote this year while the President takes the Electoral College, we Americans who are interested in democracy have a chance to use the ensuing controversy for good.

Twice in twelve years, the popular vote winner will have been denied the Oval Office. Each party will have been victimized once. Everyone on each side of the aisle will hate the system, and with just cause.

MAYBE FINALLY enough pressure will be put on Congress to enact a constitutional amendment that abolishes the Electoral College altogether. Failing that (and you should always assume a certain degree of failure from Congress), more legislatures may enact a law that gives that state's electoral votes to the popular vote winner regardless of individual state results.

(Read.)

MAYBE. If we strike while the iron is hot, maybe even sick-of-political-ads Ohioans and Coloradonites and Virginians and Floridians will climb on board.

But this can only happen if Mitt Romney, the most inept, secretive, dishonest and duplicitous presidential candidate in the history of the universe, inexplicably wins 50.01 percent of the vote tomorrow. Go America!

(i have got to do something about my broken caps lock key, it's flaring up again.)

Vision 3: Gay marriage is approved at the ballot box for the first time in U.S. history

again, a caption would be overkill

Measures legalizing SSM are up for voter approval in three navy blue states: MD, MN and WA (woot woot). Wherever gay marriage (also known as "marriage") has been implemented, it has always been as a judicial action. It has never crested 50 percent approval. Until tomorrow, when it might. Or might not.

While I would be especially proud to see my home state be the first to

 -- WE INTERRUPT THIS CLAUSE WITH EMERGENCY POLL NUMBERS --

Washington State Referendum 74: Poll numbers, averaged
Summer: 50.5 for, 42.5 against
September: 54.0 for, 38.3 against
October: 53.7 for, 40.4 against
November: 52.0 for, 42.0 against
Those are admirably consistent.

-- WE RETURN YOU TO WHATEVER THE H --

pass SSM by a vote of the people, I also am confident that should it fail, it won't fail repeatedly. Achieving marriage equality is a foregone conclusion. Whether it happens in 2012 or 2014 or 2016 is the only question at this point. With nationwide polls showing quick movement toward acceptance of SSM (look at these numbers! they're almost too good to be true), the war is won. The battles remain to be fought, and traditionalists will shriek for a time, but the eventual outcome is certain. Gays will marry, and it will be soon. Not soon enough. Just plain soon. Which is not good enough. But still just plain good.

Please vote.

Poll Dance, 10/29 Edition

In last month's polling update, I coined something I like to call the Rule of Fifty. (Scroll down to the previous post if you have extra time coming out of your ears. Ew. On the other hand, yay, extra time!)

According to the Rule, a candidate's 50-47 lead in the polls is worth measurably more than a 44-38 advantage, even though the latter lead is twice as big. People change their minds less easily these days and the undecided tend to break pretty evenly. Even getting to 49 is a good sign. But 50 is a nice round number.

But a single score in the 50's is hardly significant. Polling companies are biased, imperfect, and subject to statistical variation. It takes multiple 50's showing up in a candidate's polling portfolio before you should consider it a good sign that the electorate has settled on its guy. In that state, at least. National surveys are nigh useless in our arch-undemocratic system.

So, it is with plenty of confidence and a healthy amount of angst that I bring you the most pertinent polling figures I could find. All are recent: the oldest survey dates from three weeks ago, and most of the results are from within the last week. (I get the numbers from here.)

Look at some digits from Virginia, with the President's number listed first:

51-47. 51-46. 50-43. 51-46.

But, at the same time, one notices:

50-48. 50-47. 51-44. All for Romney. The state is not settled at all, and may in fact come down to third-party votes or Hurricane Sandy's yet-to-be-determined impact.

Then, Ohio, where Romney hasn't posted a single 50, EVER, so all of these are Obama leads:

51-47. 50-49. 50-45. 51-46. 50-46. 50-46.

Of course, the Rule cuts both ways. Florida is on its way to choosing Romney:

51-46. 50-49. 51-44. 51-47. And nine more 48's and 49's. All those numbers come from right-leaning pollsters, but the left-leaning ones have yet to hand Obama a single score of 50 or higher this fall.

With that in mind, I prepared a little electoral map. For each swing state, I applied the Rule of Fifty, granting the state to the candidate who crossed that threshold the most often in the past three weeks. Then I gave NH and VA to Romney, granting the tie to the challenger in both cases. Why not? His people are very enthused about removing the President from office. Maybe you've noticed. (Sometimes there's frothing involved.)

The resulting map:

Link to 270-to-win.com

Obama 277, Romney 261.

That map isn't my official prediction. (I do think CO and NH will go blue, and VA will be too close to call on election night.) No, it's just what the polls say, today, with a merciful 198 hours left until polls close on the West Coast.

P.S. -- My experience in manic poll-watching has taught me one thing, which forms the backbone of the Rule. Any single poll is insignificant. Aggregating the surveys is the key to reading them well. This is in stark conflict to over-reaction and sensationalism, which happens to be the key to TV ratings. A Gallup survey that shows Romney up by 6 or 7 is much more advertising-dollar-friendly. A single score in the 50's is interesting, but not meaningful. Several 50's: now we're talking.

Poll Dance, 9/23 Edition

I'll probably want to do a poll-watching post every so often as the presidential election nears. Here you go!

This time, there's a myth that needs dispelling.

The race for the White House is often described as "neck-and-neck" or too close to call. On its face, that looks accurate. Gallup offers us this chart, titled "Obama 48, Romney 46 in Swing States."

Real Clear Politics informs us that there are still 100 electoral votes up for grabs, with Obama securely holding on to 247 and Romney clinging to 191. It takes 270 to win, and neither man has that many sewn up.

Fivethirtyeight.com tells us that the President carried a 60-70 percent chance of re-election through the summer, and right now wins three-quarters of its program's simulations. It gives Obama a 3.3 percent lead in the popular vote.

Close race, right? Just a couple points here or there, sometimes three, sometimes four. It'll come down to the wire, right? Maybe we'll be up all night on Election Day, holding our breath as votes trickle in from Ohio, or maybe we'll even get treated to another recount in Florida? Stay tuned! Right?

Hogwash. The race isn't anywhere near as competitive as it sounds.

To support my point, I'd like to invoke something called the "Rule of Fifty." (Please don't google it, because I just made it up. And it just sends you to some chess thingy. You're not even playing chess right now, are you? Didn't think so.)

Premise of Fraley's Rule of Fifty: We live in hyper-partisan times. When a voter chooses his or her preferred candidate, it's very difficult to change his or her mind. The voter may take his time making his choice; she may remain undecided for a long time, through the primaries, while mini-scandals erupt, all summer long.

But when that voters settles on a candidate, he's actually settled on that candidate in a permanent way, and it would take a great deal of upheaval to change his mind.

My argument: A 44-38 lead for the Democrat in June means nothing. A 50-47 lead in late September means everything. The race is actually closer in the first scenario, when minds are changeable and the pool of undecided voters is large. Even though the Democrat has a lead twice as large in June, the three-point lead in September is far more significant. There is no pool of undecided voters in the second scenario -- just a puddle.

The late three-point lead is more powerful because people's minds are made up. If yours is, think about what it would take to change it.

Now, some numbers. If numbers creep you out, skip ahead to the wordy wordthings later on. All numbers are recent reputable poll results with Obama's "score" listed first.

Florida: 48-47. 49-44. 49-46.

Ohio: 48-44. 49-42. 51-46.


Virginia: 50-46. 50-43. 52-44.


(I left out unreliable polls who have shown an unreasonable partisan bent one way or the other.)

If Obama wins even one of these states, the electoral math becomes impossible for Romney. Not only must the Republican win all three, but he probably has to steal another pretty blue state like Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, or New Hampshire, and even then it might not be enough to dethrone the President.

And, oh, by the way, Obama polls better in the five states just listed. Far more fifties than forties.

As Romney offers to the public gaffe upon gaffe upon gaffe upon piss-poor convention, Obama's starting to scrape 50, or reaching it, or crossing it, everywhere that matters.

(Visit this awesome place called 538 for more data. Blogger Nate Silver is a numbers guru, who dispassionately gathers polls to make political predictions. He is the best.)

The Rule of Fifty receives confirmation in job approval polls. Say you're the President. (Don't actually say that. You sounds foolish when you say those words!) You might slog your way through your first term with job approval ratings in the forties. If you're a terrible Chief Executive, you might flirt with the thirties. If you're truly an abysmal farce of a president, you might dip into the twenties. (Like him. Or him.)

But if you're in the fifties, people aren't going to vote you out of office, unless the challenger's charisma is so overwhelming that his positive ratings outshine yours by a large margin.

President Barack Hussein Obama (I still stifle a giggle when I type that sequence of words) has seen his job approval settle at 50 percent, just in time.

[ You don't have to trust me on that. Just check out the chart at Real Clear Politics with the numbers. Click on it. It is pretty.]

Meanwhile, presidential wannabe Willard Mitt Romney (Esquire) logs more approval numbers in the 30's than the 50's. There is a gap there too. So many gaps.

Enough stats. Barring a Mayan Apocalypse, we're going to get four more years of President Obama. If that causes your head to explode, sorry.*

* apology is insincere.

It's Like What Jesus Said About Gays

.