Happy (Re)Election Day

A friend turned that phrase this morning. I took it. Now you have it!

Three points before they start counting the votes.

A) What I WANT to happen

Dream scenario? It's not even close. Every battleground state goes blue. No recounts. FL and VA both go for the President early. NC is too close to call. Obama coasts in PA.

In fact, how large the margins is in Pennsylvania and how close things along the mid-Atlantic seaboard will tell us a lot before we get other results. I want an early blowout -- an 11-point victory -- in PA, for the sake of my blood pressure.

As a bonus, unpopular Senate candidates in MO and IN could sink Romney by association. Both those states were competitive in '08. It's possible.

Again, it requires a great deal of wishful thinking, but if all of the above occur, you get this map. It looks a lot like 2008. The polls don't suggest this scenario, but they also don't suggest a Romney win. So if the polls are UNDERestimating the President's numbers, that map is in play.

B) What I FEAR will happen

In a word: Chicanery. Voter suppression efforts are one thing. Like a baseball team trying to steal signs, I expect Republican officials to use every single sleazy, despicable, and undemocratic trick in the book to discourage or prevent proper voting in Democratic strongholds. It's not right, but it's how the game is played, and to not expect some gamesmanship is to be naive to a fault.

I won't stoop to the level of some of my fellow shrieking liberals and outright accuse Republicans of stealing votes. Or of tampering with election machines. Not without proof, at least.

But I fear the possibility that desperate R party leaders, after watching their base fritter away nationwide, after realizing they are on the verge of becoming a regional force with little sway left in the upper Midwest or either coast, after witnessing NM, NV and CO turn blue, with demographics working against them -- I fear that they might cross a line and resort to treasonous acts of deception.

If those crimes are committed AND the challenger outperforms his polls, then you get something like this: Ugh, this map. And a new President swoops in to office, armed with a 52-48 popular vote victory and a 92-point Electoral College cushion.

Much like the dream scenario, I don't think this nightmare will be visited upon us. But I worry.

Moving on.

C) What I BELIEVE will happen.

My prognosticating skills are... pretty much the worst in the blogging business. Four years ago, I foresaw a giant economic recovery, a landslide election, and the Mariners winning the 2011 World Series. I didn't think Mitt Romney would win the R nomination. I thought that Obamacare would be overturned by the Supreme Court.

What I'm saying is, don't send me your tea leaves. I will only mash them up and brew them and throw them out before any actual reading of them takes place.

But.

I do think the President will win tonight. I do think it will be settled before midnight Eastern Time. (Or as they call it in the Oval Office, Nairobi Time -11.)

I do think he'll carry Virginia, for two main reasons: he performed well there in 2008 and there is a third-party candidate (the libertarian-leaning Virgil Goode) polling at about 1 percent, siphoning votes from Romney.

I do think he'll carry Ohio. Voter suppression will keep the race close, but Obama has such a commanding lead in the polls there... it's hard to assume that ALL the polling is off in that state. One poll, two could lean too far to the left or the right. But when you consider the totality of the data, when you don't cherry-pick a gorgeous Romney +2 poll and then shut your eyes, you see a clear lead for the President. A clear enough lead to hold off any potential tomfoolery. Or shenanigans.

Once you turn OH and VA blue, Romney is toast. He could somehow pick off WI, NH, hold on to FL, surprise us by winning CO and IA both... and still lose 274-264. (See this map.)

He could inexplicably win PA, adding CO and NH... and still lose 270-268 (Another map!)

I couldn't possibly tell you what will happen across the board. But VA and OH seem like Obama's best bets among true battleground states. And they're practically game-clinchers.

Only a few more hours. Vote!