Recap of Part One, published yesterday and below this post:
People say our system is broken, our media sucks, a Dark Age of politics is upon us. Poppycock, I say. The future is bright for three reasons: Good ideas can spread faster than ever; civil liberties are once again an important part of our national conversation; the two-party system is nearing its end. The Republican coalition cannot survive in its current configuration, opposing everything, including its own recent platform ideas, and being pulled too far rightward for its own good, by its rebellious Tea Party wing.
See, here's the problem for Republicans. Their ideological real estate is shrinking, pushed rightward with every centrist proposal they oppose. The smart half of the party braintrust can see this, and sees a future string of national and statewide electoral defeats unless a dramatic move to the center is made. Already, the list of embarrassing losses in races Republicans ought to have won includes Delaware Senate '10, Nevada Senate '10, Indiana Senate '12, Missouri Senate '12. Add the most recent presidential race if you believe Romney had to move way too far to the right during the primary season. I won't argue with you too hard on that one.
Taking the long view might hold the R patchwork together. Ah, but the other half of the Grand Old (White Men's) Party has no interest in the long view. The Tea Party enthusiasts are mainly concerned with putting Tea Party-type representatives in office. If a few RINO's (Republicans In Name Only, a derisive term) lose along the way, it's no skin off the backs of the far-right wing ideologues. "It's not like those guys were on our team anyway," they're apt to think.
Tea Partiers are right, to an extent. There are substantive differences between the two R factions.
Establishment R's ---------- Tea Party R's
Pragmatic ------------------ Ideological
Trim gov't services --------- Eliminate gov't services
Interventionist -------------- Isolationist
Much less libertarian ------- Much more libertarian
Consider science ----------- Deny science
Each of those five divisions is critical. Look at it from the Tea Party's standpoint:
If compromise is a dirty word, one can't very well compromise with one's own teammates. Let alone the other party.
If government services are repulsive wastes of taxpayer money, just keeping those programs in place is hardly a satisfying result.
If we should get out of other nations' business, then war isn't much of an answer, now is it?
If libertarian ideals are important, they ought to be respected. Lip service won't do.
If science is just a bunch of anti-God bogus claims, why even bother with it at all?
Therefore, I cite irreconciliable differences between the Republicans and the Tea Partiers. I pronounce them separated, pre-divorced, effective immediately, with an official signing of the papers later this decade. I don't think 2015 is out of the question, but my money's on 2017, after a fresh batch of nationwide and statewide losses.
And the sooner we see an official split in this version of the Republican Party, the better. Not because the amount of D's in Congress will increase. (It will. Duh.) But because the anti-everything crowd that runs the GOP needs to be relegated to a fringe party. Only then will the remaining adult politicians will be able to return to crafting what makes our system great: bills that neither party really likes. I kid, but I don't. Governing a diverse, giant, rich, polarized country such as ours is not something to be entrusted to extremists.
Make no mistake: once the Republican v. Republican divorce is consummated, conservatives will suffer electoral losses -- for a short while. But dominance by one party can't last.
And that's where the future brightens considerably: First, the D's will fill the vacuum, swooping in to collect congressional supermajorities. They will enact laws similar to what we saw in 2009-2010: centrist policies that do next to nothing for the little guy and the middle class. Granted, Obamacare is a boon to the poor, but just look at this list:
a) Foreclosure and homeowner relief were half-measures at best.
b) The stimulus package, too small to begin with and watered down with tax breaks to boot, didn't fix unemployment.
c) The preservation of corporate tax loopholes and 11-figure subsidies to oil companies, which shift more of the tax burden to small businesses and individuals.
d) Somehow, Democrats found a way to extend all of the deficit-ballooning Bush tax cuts.
A couple more cycles like that one, and the Greens will rise. There is only so long the outer wings of a party can be satisfied by table crumbs. Do you see what I'm saying?
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WILL HAPPEN EVENTUALLY TO THE DEMOCRATS.
Sorry for yelling. Just wanted you to see that point a bit better.
So, long term: there must be no fewer than four parties in our collective future. From left to right, on a rudimentary scale:
The Greens.
Aggressively redistributive and pro-little guy. Highly ideological.
Vote share: 15-20 percent
The Democrats.
Center-left. Government has an important role to play; pragmatic types. Solutions-oriented.
Vote share: 30-35 percent
The Republicans.
Center-right. Limited government is best; states-rights types. Business-oriented.
Vote share: 30-35 percent
The Libertarians.
Far-right and off-the-scale individualists. Highly ideological.
Vote share: 15-20 percent
To be perfectly fair, this is already how things were set up in the 70s, 80s and 90s, and even in the 2000s up to Barack Obama's election. Sure, there were only two parties at the time, and the numbers fluctuated considerably with things like Watergate and recessions and popular figures like Reagan.
It'll be so much better with four. Fringe groups will be less influential, yet their constituents will be represented with actual, er, representatives. Greens and maybe Socialists (real ones) will take office and sit on committees. Republicans will be able to focus again on fiscal responsibility and caging the territorial tiger that is the federal government. We need Republicans to do those things.
The skill of consensus-building will once again be elevated, as no party will be able to overpower another. Gridlock will recede as filibusters become more rare.
Voting for the lesser of two evils will be largely a thing of the past, thank goodness.
So. Shades. Don't forget the shades. If we can manage to not rip each other's throats out in the meantime.
Another teaser: Tomorrow, I have some graphs to share that illustrate just how debilitating the Tea Party is to Republicans in competitive races. I'm very excited about those. Almost as excited as about the long-term political future of the United States of America.
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