Friday, June 22, 2012

It's the Numbers Who Are Omnipotent

I believe in Random.

This occurred to me while taking a recent survey. During the questionnaire, I was asked at three points to identify with a religious group or tradition. The first time, I chose "Christian." I didn't hesitate much. That's how I was raised, I philosophically agree with the Golden Rule and that cheek-turning bizness, and thus far, I'm a much better Christian than a Taoist. At least if I get to define the terms.

The second time, I answered "Agnostic." Just to even things out.

The third time, I clicked "Other."

Problem is, the Yellow Pages -- if they even still exist -- are conspicuously unfull of Other Agnostic Christian churches. It's not even a category!

Naturally, long after the survey was complete, the questions poked at me. What am I? Where do I fit? In what do I believe, besides avoiding sentence-ending prepositions? Those are the three big faith-y questions. And they are tough to answer definitively.

Well, I'm pretty sure I believe in Random. Let's steal a phrase from Frankie Baum. I believe in The Great and Powerful Random. Maybe even The Great and Powerful Randomizer.

Probability is omnipotent. A certain percentage of us will:

Get cancer
Win the lottery
Sign divorce papers
Miss our next credit card payment
Wake up with a hangover
Die tomorrow morning
Give birth
Eat Grape-Nuts for breakfast

And with enough research, I can tell you how many people in this country, on July 6, 2012, will meet the eight outcomes listed above. Pick any random date in the immediate future, and I can tell you how Random will act on that date. I can't tell you who Random will choose, who the Great Randomizer has predestined for a happy occasion or a tragic twist of fate.

Ah, but I can tell you that in 2012, x Americans will die in car crashes. I can tell you for certain that the number will be between 20,000 and 40,000. There is a zero-point-zero percent chance that the actual result will fall outside those numbers. Look.

2005: 43,510
2006: 42,708
2007: 41,259
2008: 37,423
2009: 33,883
2010: 32,885
2011: 32,310 (estimate)

(Source: here you go)

I could even make a $1000 bet with you that the 2012 number will fall between 27,000 and 35,000. Not that you would take that bet. You are not stupid. Why would I ever insult you? You are reading my blog! You are one of my favorite people in the world!

Okay. Point: If there is powerful celestial being, it is not as powerful as the numbers that explain probability. Or it has set itself up to be less potent than those numbers. A slave to those numbers, even.

But before you complete the process of burning me at the stake, let me say a couple more things.

You can not prove God exists; you can prove probability exists.

You cannot disprove God choosing to intervene in someone's personal life; you cannot disprove the force of random chance in a population of 300 million.

Taken as a whole, the past two paragraphs lead me to believe first in the supreme power of probability, and to begin crafting a theology around that. Do I have to reject a Judeo-Christian God-figure, as a result? Of course not. I just have to place that god's power one notch below the might of numbers.

7 comments:

  1. Interesting thoughts. Another phrase that you could use instead of saying randomize is to everything there is a season. This leads us back to the originator of random, God, who placed random into action. But who are we to say what is random when we do not even see the final outcome (after death, were those happenings random? Did they lead us somewhere we would not have gone otherwise or become something different as a result?).

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  2. Right, I'm kind of overlapping on two concepts here, Mark, and that's what happens when you blog out loud. :)

    The first concept is the power of probability and how it dictates that Thing X will happen to Person Y, and it will happen Z percent of the time. And that Thing X happens regardless of God's will or design, even if God started the whole process so very many years ago.

    The other concept is that the selection of Person Y is either part of a grand design by God or not -- maybe it's just something at work like chance and variance and a function of the sheer number of people in our society.

    I have stopped believing that Thing X, good or bad, but especially bad, is part of a grand design by God. The brief reason is relatively simple: I can't bring myself to worship a God who employs tragedy to teach survivors a lesson.

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  3. Ever since you wrote a reply I have been waiting for a time to sit and formulate a semi-coherent response. This required changing diapers, putting kids to bed, getting kids up in the morning, drinking lots of coffee, going to church, dishes, and now finally putting ink to paper electronically...

    I'll start with what you wrote last and rephrase your question: How do I not worship a God who has created so much good in my life to demonstrate his love. I look at my sons and daughter and worship. I look outside and worship. I listen to Django Reinhardt and worship. I look at the cancer I suffered through and how I am stronger now and worship.

    You're pegging God as creating only tragedy to teach. If you peg tragedy, you must peg the good as well! We grew up with a big graffiti drawn on a wall outside a parish in St Quentin les Yvelines. It read "God, How do you let the little children in Africa die when you say you love them". Since facing this graffiti as a child, I have always tried to turn questions on their heads (yes, questions do have heads) to answer the other side. "How do we sit around and watch children die in Africa when God has loved us and asked us to share this love?". Which one is the tougher question?

    About grand design, I can agree with you that things happen in this life that appear to have no involvement of the divine and often there's just silence from above. Why the hell are kids born with such and such disability, something they and their family will have to live with for years to come? I don't think there's a good answer to this question and I will not feed you any wallmart ready American Christian reply. I will answer with a question: "How do I face a life of disability without the intervention of a God who knows about pain and suffering more deeply than I do?"

    I apologize for the questions answered with questions. I truly believe questions are beautiful and often hold more truth than answers themselves. There's beauty in mystery.

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  4. Questions are the best answers to questions.

    And thanks for the absence of a WalMart-ready American Christian reply. NICE turn of a phrase.

    I don't want to get into the Starving African Children Problem because it's overdone. I would, but I have very little fresh perspective to add there.

    But I will pose this hypothetical: If your cancer had won (thankfully we scored the opposite result), it would be either because God intervened, or something mystical happened, or random chance spared you.

    And I've basically given up on God's intervention in matters of personal health. Even if God does act that way, a divine being who leaves that much devastation/suffering/incomprehension in its wake doesn't interest me, even if that same divine being is responsible for much happiness across the planet.

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  5. When God acts in the case of personal health, the end result is still the same, that person eventually dies. A miracle of sorts still doesn't put off the inevitable. An act of God does not lead to a better outcome necessarily but rather it brings a transformation of the person's "soul". Now there's a problem for the both of us - the recognition of what "soul" is. I happen to believe that someone's soul is what lives into tomorrow, and will do so forever.

    How does this relate to problem of devastation/suffering/incomprehension? If we believe in "soul", we can see that our life on earth is not the end point or sum of all things. It is a passage, a journey (so painfully cliche!), a stomp through shit infested waste. When tragedy strikes, we do not quit and give up on all things. IF that were true the human race would be no more. Instead, the "soul" that we inhabit creates a better image for tomorrow and we see that the originator of our "soul" always has our best intent for it, regardless of the happenings in life. I do not think God creates the evil that causes the pain, but rather transforms our "soul" to get past it, sometimes stronger!

    Let me ask you this, kind of a hard question:
    Do you believe that you married Cori out of a randomization of numbers (you were so and so age, attended a Christian university, your parents were married a modeled a typical marriage, etc...) or was it more than just a chance happening? Think about for a second and see if you believe in random the same way...

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  6. I like that you used that last example. Cori and I were just talking about that the other day! We were marveling at, yes, the *randomness* of our union.

    She very nearly went to Central Washington University. I very nearly started dating another girl right before her. Just adding those two variables into the mix (and there are countless other variables) means that in a parallel universe where everything else is the same, she and I probably don't end up together.

    Besides, our marriage can't be part of a larger plan. Because then that (divine) plan also allows for a whole bunch of terrible stuff to happen to millions of spouses. I'm talking physical abuse, cheating, decades of neglect, divorce -- everything our marriage doesn't have, exists and is out there and x percent of marriages are that way.

    If all of that ugly stuff ("shit-infested waste!") is part of the plan, I want no part of the plan. Or the planner.

    And if there is no grand design behind our lives, then who's to say there even is an afterlife or a soul at all? I'm not prepared to give up on God altogether. But I am prepared to live without ever knowing the answer to those last two questions.

    "I do not think God creates the evil that causes the pain." It is good to hear that. But if you believe God created this world and its parameters, including free will, then don't you have to lay some of the blame at God's feet? And if you don't believe God set up the parameters of our lives here, how did it get to be this way?

    Your move.

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  7. OK. (pause to gather thoughts and reflect - something hard to do in my life right now!)

    Blame is a good word. If we play the blame game - there is plenty to go around. For suffering that exists on earth, I can pretty well argue that much is of it exists due to Man with capital "M". I will jump right to the obvious question: How does a natural disaster fit into the blame game, wouldn't that be God's fault? No. Much of our effort on earth is put forward to make money and make a name for ourselves. Our energies go to selfish endeavors. If we could invest into scientific research like we invest into the stock market, we would have better capabilities in predicting eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamies, tornadoes. We would have greater means to respond immediately to these instances and maybe create magnetic force fields that at a push of a button would create a protective bubble around us and our families (yes, a little out there but if it can be imagined it has a chance...). What I am trying to say that even in the most incomprehensible form of tragedies that occurs, there still is a way (even million in one) to blame Man for this. I'll admit this is a stretch but I will still ascertain that pain is man made.

    This still doesn't explain the parameters that God has set out for us. (Breanne just interrupted this train of thought with Sebastian having peed his bed at nap... hard to reflect!)

    Do we really need to understand all the parameters to appreciate something? The immensity of the universe will never totally be explored - we'll be charbroiled before then but that doesn't leave us without a total amazement at how our cosmos holds together. What we see at the surface is often just a glimpse of what lies behind it. We see God through our eyes that are stuck on ourselves and our problems and will never see fully, as long as we are Human, the breadth and depth of love behind all that is in place. What if everything was created for us to enjoy and out of our stuckness on ourselves we've made the good into evil.

    I don't know if I'm making anymore sense - I need to pause - will return to this...

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