/dream sequence music plays/
/picture goes fuzzy, then sharpens again/
Economy still in doldrums. Growth is slow and fitful.
Unemployment stubbornly remains above 8 percent.
The housing market has not recovered.
Unlimited corporate money flows into the party's coffers because of the Citizens United ruling.
Voter suppression programs are signed into law in key swing states.
The President's health care legislation remains unpopular.
No dream sequence music or fuzzy-unfuzzy effects necessary! Close those slash-marks! We are living in the Republican dream scenario! Conservatives could hardly have asked for better circumstances to retake the Oval Office!
And yet.
The Romney-Ryan ticket trails in the polls, with the numbers worsening by the day, with time running out. (47 days until November 6.) The President enjoys an 80 percent chance of re-election, according to forecasts by the mathematically rigorous and very non-partisan projections at fivethirtyeight.com. (Look there for more details, it's a great place.)
The Romney-Ryan ticket trails in the polls, with the numbers worsening by the day, with time running out. (47 days until November 6.) The President enjoys an 80 percent chance of re-election, according to forecasts by the mathematically rigorous and very non-partisan projections at fivethirtyeight.com. (Look there for more details, it's a great place.)
If a Republican can't win the White House in this climate, when can he?
He'll have to do it soon, if he wants to at all. The demographics aren't getting any better for R's. Just one race of humans gives more than half its votes to the conservative candidate, and that specific race is losing population share in dramatic fashion. By 2030, less than half of all Americans will be white.
Some numbers. Specifically, some percentages.
Blacks broke 91-3 for Obama.
Latinos made it 66-23 in support of Barack.
For Asians, it was 58-29 in favor of the President.
But that was 2008, you say. A valid criticism! Let us fetch some 2004 numbers.
Blacks: 88-11 for Kerry
Latinos: 53-44 for Kerry
Asians: 43-36 for Kerry.
You might want me to average out those figures. I might want that too. Since we agree, let's travel down that route as well. Averaging the last two election cycles:
Blacks: 90-7 for Democrats
Latinos: 60-34 for Democrats
Asians: 51-33 for Democrats
Those three ethnic groups, plus the ever-expanding racial category "other," will soon make up 50 percent of the population. Already, 44 percent of us are nonwhite.
But demographics don't even tell the whole story.
Some numbers. Specifically, some percentages.
Blacks broke 91-3 for Obama.
Latinos made it 66-23 in support of Barack.
For Asians, it was 58-29 in favor of the President.
But that was 2008, you say. A valid criticism! Let us fetch some 2004 numbers.
Blacks: 88-11 for Kerry
Latinos: 53-44 for Kerry
Asians: 43-36 for Kerry.
You might want me to average out those figures. I might want that too. Since we agree, let's travel down that route as well. Averaging the last two election cycles:
Blacks: 90-7 for Democrats
Latinos: 60-34 for Democrats
Asians: 51-33 for Democrats
Those three ethnic groups, plus the ever-expanding racial category "other," will soon make up 50 percent of the population. Already, 44 percent of us are nonwhite.
But demographics don't even tell the whole story.
The economic climate won't be this bad in 2016. All indicators suggest that the worst is over, or ending.
The ruling that allows unlimited corporate cash to influence elections can't last forever.
The hot-button issues aren't trending toward R's. Gay marriage (or as I like to call it, "marriage") is supported by more than half the electorate, with that number climbing quickly. Two out of three Americans support the idea of a separate tax bracket for millionaires, quite the opposite of what R's are suggesting, which is another well-deserved tax cut for those downtrodden yachters.
Republicans really need a win now, or failing that, a victory in 2016, against presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton. (Oh yes. It's happening.) Because if this cycle or the next one passes them by, the changes they'll need to court minority voters without losing their base along the way... it's hard to see that happening.
So... good luck* with that!
* ed. note: sarcasm!
Republicans really need a win now, or failing that, a victory in 2016, against presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton. (Oh yes. It's happening.) Because if this cycle or the next one passes them by, the changes they'll need to court minority voters without losing their base along the way... it's hard to see that happening.
So... good luck* with that!
* ed. note: sarcasm!
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