I'll probably want to do a poll-watching post every so often as the presidential election nears. Here you go!
This time, there's a myth that needs dispelling.
The race for the White House is often described as "neck-and-neck" or too close to call. On its face, that looks accurate. Gallup offers us this chart, titled "Obama 48, Romney 46 in Swing States."
Real Clear Politics informs us that there are still 100 electoral votes up for grabs, with Obama securely holding on to 247 and Romney clinging to 191. It takes 270 to win, and neither man has that many sewn up.
Fivethirtyeight.com tells us that the President carried a 60-70 percent chance of re-election through the summer, and right now wins three-quarters of its program's simulations. It gives Obama a 3.3 percent lead in the popular vote.
Close race, right? Just a couple points here or there, sometimes three, sometimes four. It'll come down to the wire, right? Maybe we'll be up all night on Election Day, holding our breath as votes trickle in from Ohio, or maybe we'll even get treated to another recount in Florida? Stay tuned! Right?
Hogwash. The race isn't anywhere near as competitive as it sounds.
To support my point, I'd like to invoke something called the "Rule of Fifty." (Please don't google it, because I just made it up. And it just sends you to some chess thingy. You're not even playing chess right now, are you? Didn't think so.)
Premise of Fraley's Rule of Fifty: We live in hyper-partisan times. When a voter chooses his or her preferred candidate, it's very difficult to change his or her mind. The voter may take his time making his choice; she may remain undecided for a long time, through the primaries, while mini-scandals erupt, all summer long.
But when that voters settles on a candidate, he's actually settled on that candidate in a permanent way, and it would take a great deal of upheaval to change his mind.
My argument: A 44-38 lead for the Democrat in June means nothing. A 50-47 lead in late September means everything. The race is actually closer in the first scenario, when minds are changeable and the pool of undecided voters is large. Even though the Democrat has a lead twice as large in June, the three-point lead in September is far more significant. There is no pool of undecided voters in the second scenario -- just a puddle.
The late three-point lead is more powerful because people's minds are made up. If yours is, think about what it would take to change it.
Now, some numbers. If numbers creep you out, skip ahead to the wordy wordthings later on. All numbers are recent reputable poll results with Obama's "score" listed first.
Florida: 48-47. 49-44. 49-46.
Ohio: 48-44. 49-42. 51-46.
Virginia: 50-46. 50-43. 52-44.
(I left out unreliable polls who have shown an unreasonable partisan bent one way or the other.)
If Obama wins even one of these states, the electoral math becomes impossible for Romney. Not only must the Republican win all three, but he probably has to steal another pretty blue state like Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, or New Hampshire, and even then it might not be enough to dethrone the President.
And, oh, by the way, Obama polls better in the five states just listed. Far more fifties than forties.
As Romney offers to the public gaffe upon gaffe upon gaffe upon piss-poor convention, Obama's starting to scrape 50, or reaching it, or crossing it, everywhere that matters.
(Visit this awesome place called 538 for more data. Blogger Nate Silver is a numbers guru, who dispassionately gathers polls to make political predictions. He is the best.)
The Rule of Fifty receives confirmation in job approval polls. Say you're the President. (Don't actually say that. You sounds foolish when you say those words!) You might slog your way through your first term with job approval ratings in the forties. If you're a terrible Chief Executive, you might flirt with the thirties. If you're truly an abysmal farce of a president, you might dip into the twenties. (Like him. Or him.)
But if you're in the fifties, people aren't going to vote you out of office, unless the challenger's charisma is so overwhelming that his positive ratings outshine yours by a large margin.
President Barack Hussein Obama (I still stifle a giggle when I type that sequence of words) has seen his job approval settle at 50 percent, just in time.
[ You don't have to trust me on that. Just check out the chart at Real Clear Politics with the numbers. Click on it. It is pretty.]
Meanwhile, presidential wannabe Willard Mitt Romney (Esquire) logs more approval numbers in the 30's than the 50's. There is a gap there too. So many gaps.
Enough stats. Barring a Mayan Apocalypse, we're going to get four more years of President Obama. If that causes your head to explode, sorry.*
* apology is insincere.
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